Will Neuralink have the highest private market valuation at the end of November?

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 100¢ · $340 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$340.32

Combined PnL

-$62.63

Smart Money Entry

95¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$338.84

Total Shares339

Combined PnL+$17.28

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.48

Total Shares2,958

Combined PnL-$79.91

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
vinii	Noavg 94.8¢	$307.02	$323.63	+$17.26	73% 3098-1126 (4224)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$15.19	$15.21	+$0.02	52% 30802-28940 (59742)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.72	$0.58	+$6.38	67% 27461-13817 (41278)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$47.99	$0.46	-$47.52	54% 12407-10640 (23047)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.37	$0.24	-$0.13	26% 562-1631 (2193)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.07	$0.07	-$14.02	43% 8738-11397 (20135)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.89	$0.07	-$13.43	27% 2509-6870 (9379)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.5¢	$7.83	$0.05	-$8.81	31% 3239-7107 (10346)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$2.29	16% 374-1953 (2327)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yes	$0	$0	-$0.1	45% 1785-2178 (3963)

vinii

Invested

$307.02

Value

$323.63

PnL

+$17.26

Record

73%

3098-1126 (4224)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$15.19

Value

$15.21

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

30802-28940 (59742)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.58

PnL

+$6.38

Record

67%

27461-13817 (41278)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.99

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$47.52

Record

54%

12407-10640 (23047)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$0.13

Record

26%

562-1631 (2193)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$14.02

Record

43%

8738-11397 (20135)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$13.43

Record

27%

2509-6870 (9379)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.83

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.81

Record

31%

3239-7107 (10346)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.29

Record

16%

374-1953 (2327)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

45%

1785-2178 (3963)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.