Will Nemiga Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 15

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$1.82

Smart Money Entry

99¢ → 98.9¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,162

Combined PnL-$1.86

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.43

Total Shares36

Combined PnL+$0.04

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

75h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99¢	$366.3	$365.75	-$0.56	50% 4483-4431 (8914)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 98.8¢	$265.1	$265.12	+$0.01	52% 5288-4799 (10087)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 99.2¢	$148.8	$148.28	-$0.53	10% 25-236 (261)
KA kaxel78	Noavg 99¢	$146.39	$146.17	-$0.22	28% 522-1370 (1892)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$89.16	$88.97	-$0.19	4% 15-322 (337)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$49.6	$49.43	-$0.17	44% 1068-1376 (2444)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 99¢	$49.5	$49.43	-$0.07	27% 499-1317 (1816)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$29.76	$29.66	-$0.11	— 0-13 (13)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$5.75	$5.73	-$0.02	35% 2865-5318 (8183)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.52	$0.43	+$0.04	52% 231-215 (446)

balthazar

Invested

$366.3

Value

$365.75

PnL

-$0.56

Record

50%

4483-4431 (8914)

cigarettes

Invested

$265.1

Value

$265.12

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

5288-4799 (10087)

quietparcel

Invested

$148.8

Value

$148.28

PnL

-$0.53

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

kaxel78

Invested

$146.39

Value

$146.17

PnL

-$0.22

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$89.16

Value

$88.97

PnL

-$0.19

Record

15-322 (337)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$49.6

Value

$49.43

PnL

-$0.17

Record

44%

1068-1376 (2444)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$49.5

Value

$49.43

PnL

-$0.07

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$29.76

Value

$29.66

PnL

-$0.11

Record

—

0-13 (13)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$5.75

Value

$5.73

PnL

-$0.02

Record

35%

2865-5318 (8183)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.43

PnL

+$0.04

Record

52%

231-215 (446)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

75h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.