Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Nebraska be the closest Senate race in 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $11 held · ended Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$10.53
-$59.23
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
147h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $44.24 | $6.98 | -$37.26 | 70% 16759-7350 (24109) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $12.35 | $1.73 | -$10.62 | 40% 3992-6073 (10065) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $8.53 | $1.21 | -$7.32 | 43% 18503-24146 (42649) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $2.73 | $0.38 | -$2.34 | 22% 3328-11802 (15130) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $1.45 | $0.2 | -$1.25 | 29% 3574-8679 (12253) |
RA RadioCCODCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $0.47 | $0.02 | -$0.45 | 36% 105-187 (292) |
Invested
$44.24
Value
$6.98
PnL
-$37.26
Record
70%
16759-7350 (24109)
Invested
$12.35
Value
$1.73
PnL
-$10.62
Record
40%
3992-6073 (10065)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$8.53
Value
$1.21
PnL
-$7.32
Record
43%
18503-24146 (42649)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$2.34
Record
22%
3328-11802 (15130)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$1.25
Record
29%
3574-8679 (12253)
Invested
$0.47
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.45
Record
36%
105-187 (292)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.