Will Natus Vincere Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 15

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$18.16

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 93.5¢

-1% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 14 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,561

Combined PnL-$18.16

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Late

100h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 94.1¢	$615.49	$611.6	-$3.89	51% 4609-4510 (9119)
PO pollo07	Noavg 94.1¢	$479.4	$476.35	-$3.05	27% 499-1317 (1816)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 94.4¢	$269.14	$266.43	-$2.71	53% 5614-5046 (10660)
ZE zerone777	Noavg 94¢	$224.45	$223.26	-$1.19	30% 513-1183 (1696)
VA Vale54holi	Noavg 94¢	$178.88	$177.93	-$0.95	28% 368-936 (1304)
LI Likaseent	Noavg 94.8¢	$170.1	$167.72	-$2.38	26% 361-1008 (1369)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 94¢	$141	$140.25	-$0.75	21% 66-241 (307)
KA kaxel78	Noavg 95¢	$140.48	$138.26	-$2.22	28% 522-1370 (1892)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 94¢	$56.4	$56.1	-$0.3	15% 58-330 (388)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 94¢	$47	$46.75	-$0.25	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 94¢	$28.2	$28.05	-$0.15	26% 851-2483 (3334)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 94¢	$28.2	$28.05	-$0.15	23% 84-282 (366)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 94¢	$28.2	$28.05	-$0.15	— 2-14 (16)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 94¢	$5.45	$5.42	-$0.03	37% 3161-5372 (8533)

balthazar

Invested

$615.49

Value

$611.6

PnL

-$3.89

Record

51%

4609-4510 (9119)

pollo07

Invested

$479.4

Value

$476.35

PnL

-$3.05

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

cigarettes

Invested

$269.14

Value

$266.43

PnL

-$2.71

Record

53%

5614-5046 (10660)

zerone777

Invested

$224.45

Value

$223.26

PnL

-$1.19

Record

30%

513-1183 (1696)

Vale54holi

Invested

$178.88

Value

$177.93

PnL

-$0.95

Record

28%

368-936 (1304)

Likaseent

Invested

$170.1

Value

$167.72

PnL

-$2.38

Record

26%

361-1008 (1369)

quietparcel

Invested

$141

Value

$140.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

21%

66-241 (307)

kaxel78

Invested

$140.48

Value

$138.26

PnL

-$2.22

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$56.4

Value

$56.1

PnL

-$0.3

Record

15%

58-330 (388)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$47

Value

$46.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$28.2

Value

$28.05

PnL

-$0.15

Record

26%

851-2483 (3334)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$28.2

Value

$28.05

PnL

-$0.15

Record

23%

84-282 (366)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$28.2

Value

$28.05

PnL

-$0.15

Record

—

2-14 (16)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$5.45

Value

$5.42

PnL

-$0.03

Record

37%

3161-5372 (8533)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 14 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Late

100h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.