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Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ended Nov 8
SIGNAL
📊
Open
Consensus Traders
0
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
$0
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes3%
No97%
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance4.6%
3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$2064.47
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
2164.5
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x542f0066...88b36d
Slug
will-national-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-new-zealand-legislative-election-by-0-5