Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Napoli win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $532 held · ends May 30, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$532.12
$-1.5K
1.7¢ → 0.4¢
-74% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 50-PenceCTR | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $1.6K | $372.23 | $-1.2K | 39% 158-246 (404) |
 Gucky-45CTR | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $243.9 | $90 | -$153.9 | 32% 652-1414 (2066) |
DG DG-NOCTR<$100 | Yes | $41.99 | $41.99 | -$71.79 | 40% 653-974 (1627) |
KE kegliCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $24.75 | $12.37 | -$12.38 | 51% 47-46 (93) |
 HOG993CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $13.55 | $5 | -$8.55 | 42% 506-685 (1191) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.55 | $4.68 | -$18.01 | 57% 17248-12904 (30152) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $19.05 | $3.6 | -$15.45 | 56% 3078-2425 (5503) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $6.1 | $2.25 | -$3.85 | 38% 495-815 (1310) |
50-PenceCTRInvested
$1,571.72
Value
$372.23
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
39%
158-246 (404)
Gucky-45CTRInvested
$243.9
Value
$90
PnL
-$153.9
Record
32%
652-1414 (2066)
Invested
$41.99
Value
$41.99
PnL
-$71.79
Record
40%
653-974 (1627)
Invested
$24.75
Value
$12.37
PnL
-$12.38
Record
51%
47-46 (93)
HOG993CTR<$100Invested
$13.55
Value
$5
PnL
-$8.55
Record
42%
506-685 (1191)
Invested
$0.55
Value
$4.68
PnL
-$18.01
Record
57%
17248-12904 (30152)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$19.05
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$15.45
Record
56%
3078-2425 (5503)
Invested
$6.1
Value
$2.25
PnL
-$3.85
Record
38%
495-815 (1310)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.