Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Napoli win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $162 held · ends May 30, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$161.53
-$147.58
1.9¢ → 0.7¢
-67% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
82h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $137.9 | $135.04 | -$87.67 | 41% 2127-3055 (5182) |
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $4.35 | $24.3 | -$48.83 | 18% 108-506 (614) |
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $3 | $0.88 | -$2.68 | 62% 780-471 (1251) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.2¢ | $5.04 | $0.79 | -$4.66 | 73% 3100-1126 (4226) |
 saintaphextwinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $3.94 | $0.53 | -$3.75 | 38% 419-683 (1102) |
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$137.9
Value
$135.04
PnL
-$87.67
Record
41%
2127-3055 (5182)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$24.3
PnL
-$48.83
Record
18%
108-506 (614)
Invested
$3
Value
$0.88
PnL
-$2.68
Record
62%
780-471 (1251)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$5.04
Value
$0.79
PnL
-$4.66
Record
73%
3100-1126 (4226)
saintaphextwinCTR<$100Invested
$3.94
Value
$0.53
PnL
-$3.75
Record
38%
419-683 (1102)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.