Will Naftali Bennett receive the second mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $180 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$179.57
$0.13
99.7¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Late
78h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $63.24 | $63.32 | +$0.09 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $57.88 | $57.88 | +$0 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $39.84 | $39.88 | +$0.04 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $11.2 | $11.2 | +$0 | 48% 343-365 (708) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $7.29 | $7.29 | +$0 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
Invested
$63.24
Value
$63.32
PnL
+$0.09
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$57.88
Value
$57.88
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
balthazar<$100Invested
$39.84
Value
$39.88
PnL
+$0.04
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
Invested
$11.2
Value
$11.2
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
343-365 (708)
Invested
$7.29
Value
$7.29
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.