Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Myrwn have the most kills at Worlds 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Dec 15
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$0.22
-$3.96
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $144.63 | $0.07 | -$1.22 | 54% 19-16 (35) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $1.29 | $0.07 | -$1.22 | 8% 3-37 (40) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.75 | $0.04 | -$0.72 | 80% 61-15 (76) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.56 | $0.03 | -$0.53 | 16% 20-106 (126) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.29 | $0.02 | -$0.27 | 3% 4-132 (136) |
Invested
$144.63
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$1.22
Record
54%
19-16 (35)
Invested
$1.29
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$1.22
Record
8%
3-37 (40)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.72
Record
80%
61-15 (76)
Invested
$0.56
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.53
Record
16%
20-106 (126)
Invested
$0.29
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.27
Record
3%
4-132 (136)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.