Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
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2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 31¢ · $768 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$768
-$122.25
45.5¢ → 30.5¢
-33% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 31%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
61h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LP lpgb | Noavg 55.8¢ | $198.65 | $216.81 | +$38.49 | 27% 532-1439 (1971) |
SH shovelingdiggingCTR | Yesavg 57.6¢ | $375.15 | $208.38 | -$166.76 | 62% 368-227 (595) |
JI jinsun...CTR | Yesavg 32.2¢ | $592.09 | $189.47 | -$1.32 | 66% 297-156 (453) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 66.9¢ | $14.11 | $91.29 | +$1.42 | 39% 1093-1720 (2813) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 58.3¢ | $64.27 | $53.88 | +$7.37 | 51% 3741-3595 (7336) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 78.9¢ | $9.6 | $8.16 | -$1.44 | 53% 23051-20286 (43337) |
Invested
$198.65
Value
$216.81
PnL
+$38.49
Record
27%
532-1439 (1971)
Invested
$375.15
Value
$208.38
PnL
-$166.76
Record
62%
368-227 (595)
Invested
$592.09
Value
$189.47
PnL
-$1.32
Record
66%
297-156 (453)
Invested
$14.11
Value
$91.29
PnL
+$1.42
Record
39%
1093-1720 (2813)
Invested
$64.27
Value
$53.88
PnL
+$7.37
Record
51%
3741-3595 (7336)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$8.16
PnL
-$1.44
Record
53%
23051-20286 (43337)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.