Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $8 held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$7.66
-$43.95
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EA EatprayloveCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $37.74 | $5.43 | -$33.91 | 57% 766-585 (1351) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $1.85 | $0.88 | -$0.96 | 21% 2284-8698 (10982) |
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.77 | $0.77 | -$5.61 | 7% 14-192 (206) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $1.96 | $0.28 | -$1.68 | 18% 4056-19002 (23058) |
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $1.65 | $0.2 | -$1.45 | 19% 49-213 (262) |
DG DG-NOCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.28 | $0.07 | -$0.21 | 40% 653-974 (1627) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.12 | $0.02 | -$0.11 | 48% 9263-10128 (19391) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.02 | $0.01 | -$0.01 | 35% 710-1327 (2037) |
Invested
$37.74
Value
$5.43
PnL
-$33.91
Record
57%
766-585 (1351)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.85
Value
$0.88
PnL
-$0.96
Record
21%
2284-8698 (10982)
Invested
$0.77
Value
$0.77
PnL
-$5.61
Record
7%
14-192 (206)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$1.96
Value
$0.28
PnL
-$1.68
Record
18%
4056-19002 (23058)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$1.45
Record
19%
49-213 (262)
Invested
$0.28
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.21
Record
40%
653-974 (1627)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$0.12
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.11
Record
48%
9263-10128 (19391)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.01
Record
35%
710-1327 (2037)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.