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5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $239 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$239.26
-$0.72
99.9¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $84.9 | $84.64 | -$0.25 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $59.76 | -$0.18 | 19% 58-241 (299) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $44.97 | $44.84 | -$0.14 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.88 | -$0.09 | 25% 842-2482 (3324) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.2 | $20.14 | -$0.06 | 78% 298-83 (381) |
Invested
$84.9
Value
$84.64
PnL
-$0.25
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$59.76
PnL
-$0.18
Record
19%
58-241 (299)
Invested
$44.97
Value
$44.84
PnL
-$0.14
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.88
PnL
-$0.09
Record
25%
842-2482 (3324)
Invested
$20.2
Value
$20.14
PnL
-$0.06
Record
78%
298-83 (381)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.