Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?

19 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$15.01

Smart Money Entry

96.6¢ → 97.5¢

+1% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 19 top traders (100%)14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No19 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,569

Combined PnL+$15.01

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

199h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 96.7¢	$528.97	$533.64	+$4.67	51% 4634-4520 (9154)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 96.2¢	$176.71	$179.2	+$2.49	30% 2683-6207 (8890)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 97.4¢	$140.24	$140.41	+$0.17	26% 858-2483 (3341)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 97.8¢	$119.02	$118.75	-$0.27	25% 96-283 (379)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 95¢	$101.81	$104.54	+$2.73	27% 933-2514 (3447)
LI Likaseent<$100	Noavg 97¢	$49.73	$50.01	+$0.28	26% 361-1008 (1369)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 96¢	$49.22	$50.01	+$0.79	28% 522-1370 (1892)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 96¢	$49.22	$50.01	+$0.79	27% 499-1317 (1816)
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 97¢	$49.73	$50.01	+$0.28	28% 368-936 (1304)
ZE zerone777<$100	Noavg 96¢	$49.22	$50.01	+$0.79	30% 513-1183 (1696)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$46.05	$46.63	+$0.58	28% 521-1360 (1881)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 94¢	$28.2	$29.27	+$1.07	15% 65-373 (438)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$29.34	$29.27	-$0.07	29% 881-2138 (3019)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$25.24	$25.36	+$0.13	39% 1286-2003 (3289)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$21.78	$21.72	-$0.05	49% 86-88 (174)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$14.93	$14.88	-$0.05	44% 363-461 (824)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$14.13	$14.23	+$0.1	48% 329-355 (684)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 97¢	$11.64	$11.71	+$0.07	79% 348-95 (443)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 93¢	$10.43	$10.95	+$0.51	53% 5637-5072 (10709)

balthazar

Invested

$528.97

Value

$533.64

PnL

+$4.67

Record

51%

4634-4520 (9154)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$176.71

Value

$179.2

PnL

+$2.49

Record

30%

2683-6207 (8890)

graynotebook19

Invested

$140.24

Value

$140.41

PnL

+$0.17

Record

26%

858-2483 (3341)

godblessme2026

Invested

$119.02

Value

$118.75

PnL

-$0.27

Record

25%

96-283 (379)

northdrawer

Invested

$101.81

Value

$104.54

PnL

+$2.73

Record

27%

933-2514 (3447)

Likaseent<$100

Invested

$49.73

Value

$50.01

PnL

+$0.28

Record

26%

361-1008 (1369)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$49.22

Value

$50.01

PnL

+$0.79

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$49.22

Value

$50.01

PnL

+$0.79

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$49.73

Value

$50.01

PnL

+$0.28

Record

28%

368-936 (1304)

zerone777<$100

Invested

$49.22

Value

$50.01

PnL

+$0.79

Record

30%

513-1183 (1696)

akroll<$100

Invested

$46.05

Value

$46.63

PnL

+$0.58

Record

28%

521-1360 (1881)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$28.2

Value

$29.27

PnL

+$1.07

Record

15%

65-373 (438)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.34

Value

$29.27

PnL

-$0.07

Record

29%

881-2138 (3019)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$25.24

Value

$25.36

PnL

+$0.13

Record

39%

1286-2003 (3289)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$21.78

Value

$21.72

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

86-88 (174)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$14.93

Value

$14.88

PnL

-$0.05

Record

44%

363-461 (824)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$14.13

Value

$14.23

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

329-355 (684)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$11.64

Value

$11.71

PnL

+$0.07

Record

79%

348-95 (443)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.43

Value

$10.95

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

5637-5072 (10709)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 19 top traders (100%)14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

199h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.