Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 100¢ · $342 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$342.33
-$103.61
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-80 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
575h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 99.8¢ | $336.26 | $336.22 | -$0.05 | 46% 2729-3263 (5992) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $50.29 | $3.22 | -$47.07 | 45% 1795-2184 (3979) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $42.99 | $2.06 | -$40.92 | 43% 131-172 (303) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $13.66 | $0.66 | -$13 | 57% 12904-9818 (22722) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.18 | $0.18 | -$2.57 | 57% 3046-2290 (5336) |
Invested
$336.26
Value
$336.22
PnL
-$0.05
Record
46%
2729-3263 (5992)
Invested
$50.29
Value
$3.22
PnL
-$47.07
Record
45%
1795-2184 (3979)
Invested
$42.99
Value
$2.06
PnL
-$40.92
Record
43%
131-172 (303)
Invested
$13.66
Value
$0.66
PnL
-$13
Record
57%
12904-9818 (22722)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.18
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$2.57
Record
57%
3046-2290 (5336)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.