Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$4.3K
-$37.68
99.7¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$0.19 | 48% 3408-3679 (7087) |
KA kaxel78 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $568.5 | $568.39 | -$0.11 | 31% 251-551 (802) |
LI Likaseent | Noavg 99.7¢ | $512.51 | $512.51 | -$0 | 30% 184-437 (621) |
VA Vale54holi | Noavg 99.7¢ | $482.14 | $482.33 | +$0.18 | 28% 159-408 (567) |
ZE zerone777 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $282.07 | $281.93 | -$0.14 | 41% 379-537 (916) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $47.34 | $15.4 | -$31.94 | 53% 1544-1355 (2899) |
 TBill1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $6.7 | $1.53 | -$5.48 | 44% 146-184 (330) |
Invested
$2,389.24
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$0.19
Record
48%
3408-3679 (7087)
Invested
$568.5
Value
$568.39
PnL
-$0.11
Record
31%
251-551 (802)
Invested
$512.51
Value
$512.51
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
184-437 (621)
Invested
$482.14
Value
$482.33
PnL
+$0.18
Record
28%
159-408 (567)
Invested
$282.07
Value
$281.93
PnL
-$0.14
Record
41%
379-537 (916)
Invested
$47.34
Value
$15.4
PnL
-$31.94
Record
53%
1544-1355 (2899)
TBill1CTR<$100Invested
$6.7
Value
$1.53
PnL
-$5.48
Record
44%
146-184 (330)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.