Will Moonshot have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $217 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$216.64
-$0.23
99.9¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $94.91 | $94.76 | -$0.14 | 17% 68-331 (399) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $49.95 | $49.88 | -$0.08 | 17% 78-376 (454) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 40% 1461-2159 (3620) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $16.9 | $16.9 | +$0 | 80% 57-14 (71) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $15.15 | $15.15 | +$0 | 29% 883-2138 (3021) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.98 | -$0.01 | 31% 2830-6233 (9063) |
Invested
$94.91
Value
$94.76
PnL
-$0.14
Record
17%
68-331 (399)
Invested
$49.95
Value
$49.88
PnL
-$0.08
Record
17%
78-376 (454)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1461-2159 (3620)
Invested
$16.9
Value
$16.9
PnL
+$0
Record
80%
57-14 (71)
Invested
$15.15
Value
$15.15
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
883-2138 (3021)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.98
PnL
-$0.01
Record
31%
2830-6233 (9063)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.