Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Mookie Betts win the 2026 National League MVP Award?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.32

Combined PnL

-$87.65

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.32

Total Shares4,637

Combined PnL-$87.65

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$24.71	$0.64	-$24.08	79% 10607-2754 (13361)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$20.36	$0.57	-$19.8	60% 7177-4741 (11918)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$20.46	$0.53	-$19.96	49% 9047-9526 (18573)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$18.16	$0.47	-$17.69	43% 2778-3616 (6394)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.92	$0.07	-$2.85	37% 683-1149 (1832)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.42	$0.04	-$1.38	55% 113-94 (207)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$88.57	$0.01	-$1.89	55% 6024-5008 (11032)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.71

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$24.08

Record

79%

10607-2754 (13361)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.36

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$19.8

Record

60%

7177-4741 (11918)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.46

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$19.96

Record

49%

9047-9526 (18573)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.16

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$17.69

Record

43%

2778-3616 (6394)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.92

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$2.85

Record

37%

683-1149 (1832)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.42

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.38

Record

55%

113-94 (207)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.57

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.89

Record

55%

6024-5008 (11032)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.