Will Montana be the closest Senate race in 2026?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $417 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$417.09
$27.53
92.6¢ → 98.5¢
+6% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 47%
Freshness
Mature
38h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $90.41 | $89.84 | +$0.43 | 45% 2525-3059 (5584) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $54.7 | $55.7 | +$0.17 | 79% 12088-3268 (15356) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $49.65 | $49.95 | +$0.3 | 50% 9583-9583 (19166) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $29.49 | $35.88 | +$26.62 | 49% 8636-9158 (17794) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $22.96 | $22.98 | +$0.02 | 55% 4365-3560 (7925) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $19.82 | $19.97 | +$0.15 | 30% 2222-5090 (7312) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $15.99 | $15.74 | -$0.26 | 41% 6791-9646 (16437) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $14.92 | $15.01 | +$0.09 | 73% 13591-5101 (18692) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $2.99 | $3 | +$0 | 40% 2104-3149 (5253) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 | 47% 2081-2362 (4443) |
Invested
$90.41
Value
$89.84
PnL
+$0.43
Record
45%
2525-3059 (5584)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$54.7
Value
$55.7
PnL
+$0.17
Record
79%
12088-3268 (15356)
Invested
$49.65
Value
$49.95
PnL
+$0.3
Record
50%
9583-9583 (19166)
Invested
$29.49
Value
$35.88
PnL
+$26.62
Record
49%
8636-9158 (17794)
Invested
$22.96
Value
$22.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
55%
4365-3560 (7925)
Invested
$19.82
Value
$19.97
PnL
+$0.15
Record
30%
2222-5090 (7312)
Invested
$15.99
Value
$15.74
PnL
-$0.26
Record
41%
6791-9646 (16437)
Invested
$14.92
Value
$15.01
PnL
+$0.09
Record
73%
13591-5101 (18692)
Invested
$2.99
Value
$3
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
2104-3149 (5253)
Invested
$2
Value
$2
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2081-2362 (4443)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938
No — $89.84
Lucerys
No — $55.7
quietparcel
No — $49.95
smallreceipt
No — $35.88
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493
No — $22.98
luciebot
No — $19.97
godblessme2026
No — $15.74
e46m3
No — $15.01
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $3
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $2