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balthazar<$100NoNoYesYesYesNoYesNoYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Mongolia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision Asia 2026 Grand Final?
Resolved No. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
9
Yes 60%
Total Value
$32.54
Combined PnL
-$3.7
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 9 top traders (56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$32.54
Total Shares33
Combined PnL-$1.03
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares86
Combined PnL-$2.68
No — 44%Yes — 56%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $23.06 | $22.54 | -$0.52 | 43% 5103-6732 (11835) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $9.98 | $10 | +$0.02 | 42% 1635-2289 (3924) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $2.13 | — | -$2.13 | 18% 853-3934 (4787) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.39 | — | -$0.39 | 25% 1318-3976 (5294) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.16 | — | -$0.16 | 26% 715-2057 (2772) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $55.96 | — | -$1.68 | 42% 2632-3664 (6296) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 9% 15-143 (158) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $27.9 | — | +$1.16 | 34% 238-461 (699) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 17% 25-124 (149) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$23.06
Value
$22.54
PnL
-$0.52
Record
43%
5103-6732 (11835)
HA
haveagoodday<$100Invested
$9.98
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.02
Record
42%
1635-2289 (3924)
0X
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100Invested
$2.13
Value
—
PnL
-$2.13
Record
18%
853-3934 (4787)
AH
aHjCzCTR<$100Invested
$0.39
Value
—
PnL
-$0.39
Record
25%
1318-3976 (5294)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$0.16
Value
—
PnL
-$0.16
Record
26%
715-2057 (2772)
E4
e46m3<$100Invested
$55.96
Value
—
PnL
-$1.68
Record
42%
2632-3664 (6296)
WA
WarriorHCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
9%
15-143 (158)
QU
quietparcel<$100Invested
$27.9
Value
—
PnL
+$1.16
Record
34%
238-461 (699)
SU
SulkingCryptoCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
25-124 (149)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x56bd7c5a...ab4d1a
Slug
will-mongolia-be-the-jury-winner-in-the-eurovision-asia-2026-grand-final