Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Monaco win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 2.2¢ · $352 held · ends Jun 15, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Tue, Jun 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$352.37

Combined PnL

-$319.21

Smart Money Entry

4.2¢ → 2.2¢

-48% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$352.37

Total Shares16,017

Combined PnL-$319.21

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

157h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 3.6¢	$383.77	$235.34	-$147.57	41% 2322-3388 (5710)
saintaphextwinCTR	Yesavg 5.8¢	$106.21	$40.3	-$65.92	38% 437-727 (1164)
AP apprentice15CTR	Yesavg 7.7¢	$119.98	$34.22	-$82.52	42% 547-761 (1308)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$52.45	$32.66	-$19.79	41% 3647-5210 (8857)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$6.77	$4.8	-$1.96	52% 9084-8296 (17380)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$5.06	$2.45	-$2.61	55% 42191-34106 (76297)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.89	$2.44	+$1.56	34% 3946-7627 (11573)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.4¢	$0.56	$0.17	-$0.39	38% 1810-2980 (4790)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$383.77

Value

$235.34

PnL

-$147.57

Record

41%

2322-3388 (5710)

saintaphextwinCTR

Yes

Invested

$106.21

Value

$40.3

PnL

-$65.92

Record

38%

437-727 (1164)

apprentice15CTR

Yes

Invested

$119.98

Value

$34.22

PnL

-$82.52

Record

42%

547-761 (1308)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.45

Value

$32.66

PnL

-$19.79

Record

41%

3647-5210 (8857)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.77

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$1.96

Record

52%

9084-8296 (17380)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.06

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$2.61

Record

55%

42191-34106 (76297)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$2.44

PnL

+$1.56

Record

34%

3946-7627 (11573)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.39

Record

38%

1810-2980 (4790)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

157h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.4%

2.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2880.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

2980.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.