Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Moldova win the UEFA EURO 2028?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 3.2¢ · $51 held · ends Jul 24, 2028

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Jul 24, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$50.79

Combined PnL

$10.83

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$50.79

Total Shares1,224

Combined PnL+$10.83

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

146h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$17.26	$19.55	+$2.28	30% 35305-83677 (118982)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$4.96	$5.6	+$0.64	26% 864-2437 (3301)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yes	$5.19	$5.19	+$2.5	55% 25557-21165 (46722)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$3.71	$4.2	+$0.49	45% 16714-20317 (37031)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$3.17	$3.59	+$0.42	50% 21528-21357 (42885)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$1.47	$3.59	+$0.5	49% 24092-24631 (48723)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$9.16	$2.79	+$1.77	55% 42139-34063 (76202)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.31	$2.67	+$0.35	43% 15329-20728 (36057)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.38	$2.08	+$1.69	26% 593-1675 (2268)
PL plainfolderCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.36	$1.54	+$0.18	50% 19528-19371 (38899)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.26

Value

$19.55

PnL

+$2.28

Record

30%

35305-83677 (118982)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.96

Value

$5.6

PnL

+$0.64

Record

26%

864-2437 (3301)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.19

Value

$5.19

PnL

+$2.5

Record

55%

25557-21165 (46722)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.71

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.49

Record

45%

16714-20317 (37031)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.17

Value

$3.59

PnL

+$0.42

Record

50%

21528-21357 (42885)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.47

Value

$3.59

PnL

+$0.5

Record

49%

24092-24631 (48723)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.16

Value

$2.79

PnL

+$1.77

Record

55%

42139-34063 (76202)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$2.67

PnL

+$0.35

Record

43%

15329-20728 (36057)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.38

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$1.69

Record

26%

593-1675 (2268)

plainfolderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$0.18

Record

50%

19528-19371 (38899)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

146h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.4%

3.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2172.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

2272.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.