Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $73 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$73.2

Combined PnL

-$53.15

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$69.56

Total Shares69

Combined PnL+$6.54

Yes9 traders

Total Value$3.64

Total Shares7,287

Combined PnL-$59.69

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

67h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$50.42	$49.57	-$0.85	76% 12513-3844 (16357)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.11	$14.99	+$7.38	48% 9974-10854 (20828)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$5	+$0	58% 20250-14870 (35120)
EA EatprayloveCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$37.74	$2.72	-$36.63	57% 804-603 (1407)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.39	$0.39	-$6.11	6% 14-232 (246)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$2.1	$0.37	-$1.72	18% 4425-20750 (25175)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yes	$0.1	$0.1	+$0.1	55% 3161-2559 (5720)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.28	$0.03	-$0.24	39% 664-1053 (1717)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yes	$59.94	$0.02	-$14.97	36% 2033-3653 (5686)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.08	58% 12041-8590 (20631)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$0	-$0.01	41% 1223-1782 (3005)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.03	$0	-$0.02	17% 93-456 (549)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$50.42

Value

$49.57

PnL

-$0.85

Record

76%

12513-3844 (16357)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$15.11

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$7.38

Record

48%

9974-10854 (20828)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

20250-14870 (35120)

EatprayloveCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.74

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$36.63

Record

57%

804-603 (1407)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$6.11

Record

14-232 (246)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$1.72

Record

18%

4425-20750 (25175)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

3161-2559 (5720)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.24

Record

39%

664-1053 (1717)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.94

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$14.97

Record

36%

2033-3653 (5686)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.08

Record

58%

12041-8590 (20631)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

PnL

-$0.01

Record

41%

1223-1782 (3005)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

17%

93-456 (549)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

67h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9423.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

9523.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.