Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $5 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$4.92

Combined PnL

-$257.65

Smart Money Entry

2.4¢ → 0.1¢

-98% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$4.92

Total Shares9,834

Combined PnL-$257.65

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$167.5	$3.82	-$163.69	45% 2314-2840 (5154)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$24.42	$0.32	-$24.1	25% 181-537 (718)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$15.38	$0.2	-$15.18	19% 49-212 (261)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$3.93	$0.18	-$3.76	36% 1887-3307 (5194)
0X 0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$12.5	$0.16	-$12.34	29% 645-1566 (2211)
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$53.84	$0.11	-$28.67	64% 5396-3050 (8446)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$6.11	$0.08	-$5.88	50% 7811-7861 (15672)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$4.08	$0.05	-$4.03	44% 4031-5222 (9253)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$167.5

Value

$3.82

PnL

-$163.69

Record

45%

2314-2840 (5154)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.42

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$24.1

Record

25%

181-537 (718)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.38

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$15.18

Record

19%

49-212 (261)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.93

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$3.76

Record

36%

1887-3307 (5194)

0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.5

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$12.34

Record

29%

645-1566 (2211)

LesterDiamondCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.84

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$28.67

Record

64%

5396-3050 (8446)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.11

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$5.88

Record

50%

7811-7861 (15672)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.08

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.03

Record

44%

4031-5222 (9253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.