Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (27%) · No at 92¢ · $566 held · ends Jan 25, 2027

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Mon, Jan 25, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 27%

Total Value

$565.72

Combined PnL

-$727.87

Smart Money Entry

95.2¢ → 92.2¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$271.53

Total Shares291

Combined PnL+$27.08

Yes8 traders

Total Value$294.12

Total Shares3,699

Combined PnL-$754.95

No — 27%Yes — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-48 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

259h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR cry.eth2	Noavg 95.9¢	$212.53	$201.73	+$3.21	39% 10135-15757 (25892)
ME MenacingTurtleCTR	Yesavg 7.6¢	$102.37	$104.28	+$1.91	58% 296-214 (510)
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$58.57	$59.5	+$0.92	44% 506-657 (1163)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$69.71	$58.78	+$23.9	17% 4487-21969 (26456)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$2.0K	$48.92	-$787.49	45% 2956-3648 (6604)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$35.51	$35.51	+$3.06	— 4-0 (4)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yes	$24.45	$24.45	+$5.75	55% 3175-2632 (5807)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0.17	$14.89	+$3.5	40% 1564-2378 (3942)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$11.04	$11.01	-$0.03	58% 21138-15369 (36507)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$2.8	$5.32	+$17.18	40% 6503-9752 (16255)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.8¢	$5.89	$1.26	+$0.2	77% 12683-3867 (16550)

cry.eth2

Invested

$212.53

Value

$201.73

PnL

+$3.21

Record

39%

10135-15757 (25892)

MenacingTurtleCTR

Yes

Invested

$102.37

Value

$104.28

PnL

+$1.91

Record

58%

296-214 (510)

0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.57

Value

$59.5

PnL

+$0.92

Record

44%

506-657 (1163)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$69.71

Value

$58.78

PnL

+$23.9

Record

17%

4487-21969 (26456)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,034.05

Value

$48.92

PnL

-$787.49

Record

45%

2956-3648 (6604)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.51

Value

$35.51

PnL

+$3.06

Record

—

4-0 (4)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.45

Value

$24.45

PnL

+$5.75

Record

55%

3175-2632 (5807)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$14.89

PnL

+$3.5

Record

40%

1564-2378 (3942)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$11.04

Value

$11.01

PnL

-$0.03

Record

58%

21138-15369 (36507)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$5.32

PnL

+$17.18

Record

40%

6503-9752 (16255)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.89

Value

$1.26

PnL

+$0.2

Record

77%

12683-3867 (16550)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-48 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

259h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.5%

92.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.