Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 6.3¢ · $381 held · ends Jan 25, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$381.01
-$84.65
6.5¢ → 6.3¢
-2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Late
358h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN ancianoCTR | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $183.02 | $160.79 | -$22.23 | 55% 1612-1331 (2943) |
ME MenacingTurtleCTR | Yesavg 7.6¢ | $102.37 | $69.52 | -$32.85 | 58% 325-231 (556) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $82.8 | $66.09 | -$16.7 | 44% 554-697 (1251) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $26.2 | $26.04 | -$0.16 | 41% 3647-5210 (8857) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.2¢ | $31.33 | $22.66 | -$8.05 | 26% 6-17 (23) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $22.76 | $20.15 | -$2.61 | 38% 1810-2980 (4790) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $17.65 | $15.6 | -$2.05 | 54% 3219-2797 (6016) |
Invested
$183.02
Value
$160.79
PnL
-$22.23
Record
55%
1612-1331 (2943)
Invested
$102.37
Value
$69.52
PnL
-$32.85
Record
58%
325-231 (556)
Invested
$82.8
Value
$66.09
PnL
-$16.7
Record
44%
554-697 (1251)
Invested
$26.2
Value
$26.04
PnL
-$0.16
Record
41%
3647-5210 (8857)
Invested
$31.33
Value
$22.66
PnL
-$8.05
Record
26%
6-17 (23)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$22.76
Value
$20.15
PnL
-$2.61
Record
38%
1810-2980 (4790)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$17.65
Value
$15.6
PnL
-$2.05
Record
54%
3219-2797 (6016)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.