Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2026 NFC North?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 40¢ · $300 held · ends Jan 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$299.79
$52.79
34.1¢ → 40¢
+17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 38¢ | $924.02 | $201.42 | +$18.75 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.4¢ | $53.37 | $67.97 | +$14.6 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.5¢ | $10.96 | $30.4 | +$19.44 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.