Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $5 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$4.82
-$141.81
1.7¢ → 0.1¢
-97% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH ChuDebbieSharpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $0.51 | $2.28 | -$30.47 | 52% 167-154 (321) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $75.17 | $1.13 | -$74.05 | 61% 13859-8713 (22572) |
 Gucky-45CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $26.27 | $0.79 | -$25.48 | 32% 651-1414 (2065) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $1.6 | $0.4 | -$1.2 | 21% 2284-8696 (10980) |
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $6.67 | $0.1 | -$6.57 | 19% 49-212 (261) |
DG DG-NOCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $3.33 | $0.1 | -$3.23 | 44% 650-818 (1468) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $0.83 | $0.03 | -$0.81 | 38% 495-815 (1310) |
Invested
$0.51
Value
$2.28
PnL
-$30.47
Record
52%
167-154 (321)
Invested
$75.17
Value
$1.13
PnL
-$74.05
Record
61%
13859-8713 (22572)
Gucky-45CTR<$100Invested
$26.27
Value
$0.79
PnL
-$25.48
Record
32%
651-1414 (2065)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.6
Value
$0.4
PnL
-$1.2
Record
21%
2284-8696 (10980)
Invested
$6.67
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$6.57
Record
19%
49-212 (261)
Invested
$3.33
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$3.23
Record
44%
650-818 (1468)
Invested
$0.83
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.81
Record
38%
495-815 (1310)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.