Will Minions & Monsters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $405 held · ends Mar 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$405
-$0.18
99.9¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $187.72 | $187.63 | -$0.09 | 52% 4926-4535 (9461) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $31.39 | $31.37 | -$0.02 | 48% 3423-3707 (7130) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $31.39 | $31.37 | -$0.02 | 40% 391-591 (982) |
LI Likaseent<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $30.27 | $30.25 | -$0.02 | 28% 193-489 (682) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $30.27 | $30.25 | -$0.02 | 32% 320-687 (1007) |
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $28.39 | $28.38 | -$0.01 | 28% 169-429 (598) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $22.07 | $22.06 | -$0.01 | 31% 297-658 (955) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $22.07 | $22.06 | -$0.01 | 30% 266-615 (881) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $21.96 | $21.97 | +$0.01 | 52% 2439-2232 (4671) |
Invested
$187.72
Value
$187.63
PnL
-$0.09
Record
52%
4926-4535 (9461)
Invested
$31.39
Value
$31.37
PnL
-$0.02
Record
48%
3423-3707 (7130)
Invested
$31.39
Value
$31.37
PnL
-$0.02
Record
40%
391-591 (982)
Invested
$30.27
Value
$30.25
PnL
-$0.02
Record
28%
193-489 (682)
Invested
$30.27
Value
$30.25
PnL
-$0.02
Record
32%
320-687 (1007)
Invested
$28.39
Value
$28.38
PnL
-$0.01
Record
28%
169-429 (598)
Invested
$22.07
Value
$22.06
PnL
-$0.01
Record
31%
297-658 (955)
Invested
$22.07
Value
$22.06
PnL
-$0.01
Record
30%
266-615 (881)
Invested
$21.96
Value
$21.97
PnL
+$0.01
Record
52%
2439-2232 (4671)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.