Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?

17 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (94%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 94%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$25.94

Smart Money Entry

98.1¢ → 99.2¢

+1% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 18 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,865

Combined PnL+$25.92

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.19

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.02

No — 94%Yes — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

201h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 94% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chriszyy3	Noavg 97.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$14.44	— 1-0 (1)
balthazar	Noavg 99.3¢	$690.5	$689.73	-$0.77	51% 4649-4526 (9175)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.3¢	$248.34	$247.25	-$1.09	30% 2706-6209 (8915)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 98.7¢	$173.8	$174.59	+$0.79	24% 77-243 (320)
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 90.8¢	$137.85	$150.06	+$12.22	40% 1455-2158 (3613)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$87.95	$87.96	+$0.01	27% 936-2514 (3450)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$74.55	$74.18	-$0.37	27% 104-283 (387)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$53.83	$53.83	+$0	53% 5657-5082 (10739)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99¢	$50.76	$50.71	-$0.05	28% 522-1370 (1892)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 99¢	$50.76	$50.71	-$0.05	27% 499-1317 (1816)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99¢	$47.32	$47.27	-$0.05	28% 521-1360 (1881)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 98¢	$22.61	$22.82	+$0.21	49% 87-90 (177)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$20.94	$20.94	+$0	17% 76-374 (450)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$20.31	$20.77	+$0.46	39% 1297-2005 (3302)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98¢	$19.89	$20.08	+$0.18	48% 337-362 (699)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$14.38	$14.43	+$0.05	42% 370-503 (873)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$11.93	$11.87	-$0.06	79% 375-99 (474)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$0.18	$0.19	+$0.02	66% 4109-2134 (6243)

chriszyy3

Invested

$1,084.34

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$14.44

Record

—

1-0 (1)

balthazar

Invested

$690.5

Value

$689.73

PnL

-$0.77

Record

51%

4649-4526 (9175)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$248.34

Value

$247.25

PnL

-$1.09

Record

30%

2706-6209 (8915)

quietparcel

Invested

$173.8

Value

$174.59

PnL

+$0.79

Record

24%

77-243 (320)

haveagoodday

Invested

$137.85

Value

$150.06

PnL

+$12.22

Record

40%

1455-2158 (3613)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$87.95

Value

$87.96

PnL

+$0.01

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$74.55

Value

$74.18

PnL

-$0.37

Record

27%

104-283 (387)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$53.83

Value

$53.83

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5657-5082 (10739)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$50.76

Value

$50.71

PnL

-$0.05

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$50.76

Value

$50.71

PnL

-$0.05

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

akroll<$100

Invested

$47.32

Value

$47.27

PnL

-$0.05

Record

28%

521-1360 (1881)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$22.61

Value

$22.82

PnL

+$0.21

Record

49%

87-90 (177)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$20.94

Value

$20.94

PnL

+$0

Record

17%

76-374 (450)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$20.31

Value

$20.77

PnL

+$0.46

Record

39%

1297-2005 (3302)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$19.89

Value

$20.08

PnL

+$0.18

Record

48%

337-362 (699)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$14.38

Value

$14.43

PnL

+$0.05

Record

42%

370-503 (873)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$11.93

Value

$11.87

PnL

-$0.06

Record

79%

375-99 (474)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.02

Record

66%

4109-2134 (6243)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 18 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

201h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 94% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.