Will Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 91¢ · $3K held · ends May 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$2.8K
-$308.42
88.2¢ → 90.5¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+2 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Late
552h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CUTJALENHURTS | Noavg 88¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$43.75 | 52% 5933-5551 (11484) |
NO northdrawer | Noavg 87¢ | $382.8 | $394.8 | +$32.32 | 61% 15726-10029 (25755) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 88¢ | $35.2 | $344.7 | -$12.18 | 53% 22161-19289 (41450) |
 balthazar | Noavg 88.3¢ | $313.28 | $333.62 | +$20.34 | 53% 28804-25713 (54517) |
 thefakenick | Noavg 88¢ | $260.05 | $258.67 | -$1.38 | 56% 841-660 (1501) |
 probability | Noavg 91¢ | $156.15 | $161.37 | +$5.22 | 41% 1441-2084 (3525) |
GA Gaditima | Noavg 91¢ | $1.0K | $94 | -$415.2 | 48% 6965-7593 (14558) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.2¢ | $1.29 | $20 | +$18.7 | 58% 18975-13958 (32933) |
CUTJALENHURTSInvested
$1,100
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$43.75
Record
52%
5933-5551 (11484)
Invested
$382.8
Value
$394.8
PnL
+$32.32
Record
61%
15726-10029 (25755)
Invested
$35.2
Value
$344.7
PnL
-$12.18
Record
53%
22161-19289 (41450)
balthazarInvested
$313.28
Value
$333.62
PnL
+$20.34
Record
53%
28804-25713 (54517)
thefakenickInvested
$260.05
Value
$258.67
PnL
-$1.38
Record
56%
841-660 (1501)
probabilityInvested
$156.15
Value
$161.37
PnL
+$5.22
Record
41%
1441-2084 (3525)
Invested
$1,019.2
Value
$94
PnL
-$415.2
Record
48%
6965-7593 (14558)
Invested
$1.29
Value
$20
PnL
+$18.7
Record
58%
18975-13958 (32933)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.