Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Milan finish first in UEL league phase?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $335 held · ends Feb 28, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 89%
$335.34
$121.56
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday | Noavg 77.4¢ | $224.65 | $136.94 | +$129.08 | 47% 3849-4309 (8158) |
BI BiggggggggCTR | Yes | $118.32 | $118.32 | -$32.45 | 32% 3287-7146 (10433) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $8.92 | $34 | +$25.08 | 40% 6562-9840 (16402) |
 thefakenickCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $8.53 | $30.25 | -$8.29 | 50% 925-910 (1835) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.03 | $6.04 | +$6.01 | 27% 2544-6903 (9447) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.03 | $4.25 | +$4.22 | 17% 1358-6572 (7930) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.02 | $3.83 | -$1.05 | 49% 6587-6938 (13525) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.02 | $1.7 | -$0.47 | 17% 394-1979 (2373) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $0.61 | $0.03 | -$0.58 | 28% 579-1489 (2068) |
Invested
$224.65
Value
$136.94
PnL
+$129.08
Record
47%
3849-4309 (8158)
Invested
$118.32
Value
$118.32
PnL
-$32.45
Record
32%
3287-7146 (10433)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$8.92
Value
$34
PnL
+$25.08
Record
40%
6562-9840 (16402)
thefakenickCTR<$100Invested
$8.53
Value
$30.25
PnL
-$8.29
Record
50%
925-910 (1835)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$6.04
PnL
+$6.01
Record
27%
2544-6903 (9447)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$4.25
PnL
+$4.22
Record
17%
1358-6572 (7930)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$3.83
PnL
-$1.05
Record
49%
6587-6938 (13525)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$1.7
PnL
-$0.47
Record
17%
394-1979 (2373)
Invested
$0.61
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.58
Record
28%
579-1489 (2068)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.