Will Miki Zohar be the next Speaker of the Knesset?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $407 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$406.96
$0.39
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel | Noavg 99.9¢ | $147.53 | $147.61 | +$0.07 | 24% 75-243 (318) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $74.99 | $75.13 | +$0.14 | 25% 96-283 (379) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $49.95 | $49.98 | +$0.02 | 30% 2683-6207 (8890) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $39.88 | $39.98 | +$0.1 | 51% 4634-4520 (9154) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $36.58 | $36.6 | +$0.02 | 29% 881-2138 (3019) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.99 | +$0.02 | 16% 63-330 (393) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $13.99 | $13.99 | +$0.01 | 79% 348-95 (443) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.99 | $8 | +$0 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.68 | $5.69 | +$0 | 27% 933-2514 (3447) |
Invested
$147.53
Value
$147.61
PnL
+$0.07
Record
24%
75-243 (318)
Invested
$74.99
Value
$75.13
PnL
+$0.14
Record
25%
96-283 (379)
Invested
$49.95
Value
$49.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
30%
2683-6207 (8890)
balthazar<$100Invested
$39.88
Value
$39.98
PnL
+$0.1
Record
51%
4634-4520 (9154)
Invested
$36.58
Value
$36.6
PnL
+$0.02
Record
29%
881-2138 (3019)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.02
Record
16%
63-330 (393)
Invested
$13.99
Value
$13.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
79%
348-95 (443)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.99
Value
$8
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
Invested
$5.68
Value
$5.69
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
933-2514 (3447)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.