Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 79¢ · $267 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$267.12
$10.96
69.3¢ → 78.5¢
+13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sardinianshepherd | Yesavg 76.7¢ | $204.18 | $208.94 | -$13.87 | 65% 923-506 (1429) |
 Nadmi<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $28.7 | $54.95 | +$26.25 | 47% 2029-2245 (4274) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $4.65 | $3.23 | -$1.43 | 50% 1642-1629 (3271) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.