Will Mike Leigh win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $277 held · ends Mar 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$276.5
-$0.03
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $103.38 | $103.38 | +$0 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $48.15 | $48.15 | +$0 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $44.96 | $44.96 | +$0 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $35.03 | $35.02 | -$0.02 | — 0-13 (13) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $15.04 | $15.04 | +$0 | 28% 2439-6150 (8589) |
Invested
$103.38
Value
$103.38
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$48.15
Value
$48.15
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
Invested
$44.96
Value
$44.96
PnL
+$0
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
Invested
$35.03
Value
$35.02
PnL
-$0.02
Record
—
0-13 (13)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$15.04
Value
$15.04
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
2439-6150 (8589)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.