Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$4.2K
-$7.31
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$1.2 | 48% 3408-3679 (7087) |
KA kaxel78 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $569.82 | $569.53 | -$0.29 | 31% 251-551 (802) |
LI Likaseent | Noavg 99.9¢ | $513.54 | $513.28 | -$0.26 | 30% 184-437 (621) |
VA Vale54holi | Noavg 99.9¢ | $483.3 | $483.05 | -$0.24 | 28% 159-408 (567) |
ZE zerone777 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $282.64 | $282.5 | -$0.14 | 41% 379-537 (916) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.14 | $0.14 | -$5.19 | 57% 3046-2288 (5334) |
Invested
$2,393.84
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$1.2
Record
48%
3408-3679 (7087)
Invested
$569.82
Value
$569.53
PnL
-$0.29
Record
31%
251-551 (802)
Invested
$513.54
Value
$513.28
PnL
-$0.26
Record
30%
184-437 (621)
Invested
$483.3
Value
$483.05
PnL
-$0.24
Record
28%
159-408 (567)
Invested
$282.64
Value
$282.5
PnL
-$0.14
Record
41%
379-537 (916)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.14
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$5.19
Record
57%
3046-2288 (5334)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.