Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$0.98
-$77.82
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Late
680h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
15 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $43.96 | $0.55 | -$43.41 | 42% 148-204 (352) |
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $14.61 | $0.18 | -$14.43 | 27% 201-539 (740) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $9.58 | $0.12 | -$9.46 | 45% 1862-2292 (4154) |
TY TyshaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $5.61 | $0.07 | -$5.54 | 73% 8252-3129 (11381) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $3.08 | $0.04 | -$3.04 | 31% 315-688 (1003) |
ZE zerone777CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $1.95 | $0.02 | -$1.93 | 40% 409-609 (1018) |
Invested
$43.96
Value
$0.55
PnL
-$43.41
Record
42%
148-204 (352)
Invested
$14.61
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$14.43
Record
27%
201-539 (740)
Invested
$9.58
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$9.46
Record
45%
1862-2292 (4154)
Invested
$5.61
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$5.54
Record
73%
8252-3129 (11381)
Invested
$3.08
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$3.04
Record
31%
315-688 (1003)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.93
Record
40%
409-609 (1018)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.