Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Michael Morales be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 1.4¢ · $71 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$70.74
-$11.71
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
62h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL plainfolder<$100 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $30.83 | $29.36 | -$1.59 | 31% 4457-9735 (14192) |
CR cry.eth2<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $17.26 | $18.55 | +$5.49 | 39% 10144-15757 (25901) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yes | $11.94 | $11.94 | +$6.12 | — 4-0 (4) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $1.52 | $7.35 | -$12.17 | 67% 27461-13817 (41278) |
 4751346CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $12 | $2.12 | -$9.47 | 73% 1314-495 (1809) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $1.31 | $1.23 | -$0.09 | 48% 1967-2120 (4087) |
Invested
$30.83
Value
$29.36
PnL
-$1.59
Record
31%
4457-9735 (14192)
Invested
$17.26
Value
$18.55
PnL
+$5.49
Record
39%
10144-15757 (25901)
Invested
$11.94
Value
$11.94
PnL
+$6.12
Record
—
4-0 (4)
Invested
$1.52
Value
$7.35
PnL
-$12.17
Record
67%
27461-13817 (41278)
4751346CTR<$100Invested
$12
Value
$2.12
PnL
-$9.47
Record
73%
1314-495 (1809)
Invested
$1.31
Value
$1.23
PnL
-$0.09
Record
48%
1967-2120 (4087)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.