Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.50% and 3.99%?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 39¢ · $55 held · ends Jan 9, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$55.35
$5.99
Research grade
NeutralNo at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $40.12 | $47.25 | +$7.09 | 26% 7359-21128 (28487) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.8¢ | $5.94 | $6.03 | +$0.09 | 53% 8618-7692 (16310) |
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063cCTR<$100 | Noavg 61.7¢ | $3.22 | $1.98 | -$1.18 | 68% 740-356 (1096) |
Invested
$40.12
Value
$47.25
PnL
+$7.09
Record
26%
7359-21128 (28487)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$6.03
PnL
+$0.09
Record
53%
8618-7692 (16310)
Invested
$3.22
Value
$1.98
PnL
-$1.18
Record
68%
740-356 (1096)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.