Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.50% and 2.99%?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $323 held · ends Jan 9, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 9, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$323.16

Combined PnL

$14.49

Smart Money Entry

90.1¢ → 99.4¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$318.69

Total Shares320

Combined PnL+$25.47

Yes4 traders

Total Value$4.46

Total Shares491

Combined PnL-$10.99

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 98.7¢	$140.88	$100.84	-$5.45	43% 18721-24484 (43205)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 81.7¢	$93.98	$74.55	+$14.9	37% 16948-29332 (46280)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98¢	$70.81	$71.81	+$1	50% 66271-66796 (133067)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$43.92	$41.68	+$0.92	23% 8575-28997 (37572)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 49.8¢	$39.84	$29.81	+$14.1	50% 21616-21496 (43112)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$7.33	$2.72	-$4.61	14% 9534-61058 (70592)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$4.88	$1.14	-$3.74	25% 696-2083 (2779)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$2.69	$0.49	-$2.2	31% 2585-5634 (8219)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$0.54	$0.11	-$0.43	22% 3491-12123 (15614)

Lucerys

Invested

$140.88

Value

$100.84

PnL

-$5.45

Record

43%

18721-24484 (43205)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$93.98

Value

$74.55

PnL

+$14.9

Record

37%

16948-29332 (46280)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$70.81

Value

$71.81

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

66271-66796 (133067)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$43.92

Value

$41.68

PnL

+$0.92

Record

23%

8575-28997 (37572)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$39.84

Value

$29.81

PnL

+$14.1

Record

50%

21616-21496 (43112)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.33

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$4.61

Record

14%

9534-61058 (70592)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.88

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$3.74

Record

25%

696-2083 (2779)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.69

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$2.2

Record

31%

2585-5634 (8219)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.43

Record

22%

3491-12123 (15614)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.