Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 7.8¢ · $129 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$128.65
-$53.47
Research grade
AvoidYes at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+30 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Late
422h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $100 | $96.89 | -$3.11 | 69% 141-63 (204) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $17.37 | $11.47 | -$5.9 | 55% 449-366 (815) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $57.1 | $10 | -$47.1 | 56% 15274-11804 (27078) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $5.26 | $8.37 | +$3.11 | — 5-1 (6) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.3¢ | $2.4 | $1.92 | -$0.48 | 53% 326-294 (620) |
Invested
$100
Value
$96.89
PnL
-$3.11
Record
69%
141-63 (204)
FrozenParasiteCTR<$100Invested
$17.37
Value
$11.47
PnL
-$5.9
Record
55%
449-366 (815)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$57.1
Value
$10
PnL
-$47.1
Record
56%
15274-11804 (27078)
Invested
$5.26
Value
$8.37
PnL
+$3.11
Record
—
5-1 (6)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$1.92
PnL
-$0.48
Record
53%
326-294 (620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.