Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 24¢ · $394 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$394.29
$38.59
19.6¢ → 24¢
+22% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 18.5¢ | $137.71 | $190.62 | +$17.25 | 53% 1058-951 (2009) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 20¢ | $128.24 | $161.99 | +$33.75 | 36% 14380-25784 (40164) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $49 | $34 | -$15 | 57% 15159-11586 (26745) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.9¢ | $5.08 | $7.67 | +$2.59 | 54% 302-257 (559) |
Invested
$137.71
Value
$190.62
PnL
+$17.25
Record
53%
1058-951 (2009)
Invested
$128.24
Value
$161.99
PnL
+$33.75
Record
36%
14380-25784 (40164)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$49
Value
$34
PnL
-$15
Record
57%
15159-11586 (26745)
Invested
$5.08
Value
$7.67
PnL
+$2.59
Record
54%
302-257 (559)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.