Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $8K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 80%
$8.0K
-$86.04
98.9¢ → 99¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011 | Noavg 99¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$7.17 | 48% 3408-3679 (7087) |
KA kaxel78 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$2.34 | 31% 251-551 (802) |
LI Likaseent | Noavg 98.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$0.17 | 30% 184-437 (621) |
PO pollo07 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $958.63 | $957.27 | -$1.36 | 32% 303-640 (943) |
VA Vale54holi | Noavg 98.8¢ | $898.72 | $897.42 | -$1.3 | 28% 159-408 (567) |
AK akroll | Noavg 98.9¢ | $749.61 | $748.37 | -$1.24 | 33% 304-623 (927) |
KL klli27 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $559.88 | $558.8 | -$1.08 | 32% 279-606 (885) |
ZE zerone777 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $279.82 | $279.95 | +$0.13 | 41% 379-537 (916) |
 BigMackyGCTR | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $141.73 | $66.3 | -$75.43 | 19% 99-419 (518) |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $9.13 | $13.31 | -$0.76 | 50% 390-393 (783) |
Invested
$2,372.26
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$7.17
Record
48%
3408-3679 (7087)
Invested
$1,115.77
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$2.34
Record
31%
251-551 (802)
Invested
$1,039.38
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$0.17
Record
30%
184-437 (621)
Invested
$958.63
Value
$957.27
PnL
-$1.36
Record
32%
303-640 (943)
Invested
$898.72
Value
$897.42
PnL
-$1.3
Record
28%
159-408 (567)
Invested
$749.61
Value
$748.37
PnL
-$1.24
Record
33%
304-623 (927)
Invested
$559.88
Value
$558.8
PnL
-$1.08
Record
32%
279-606 (885)
Invested
$279.82
Value
$279.95
PnL
+$0.13
Record
41%
379-537 (916)
BigMackyGCTRInvested
$141.73
Value
$66.3
PnL
-$75.43
Record
19%
99-419 (518)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100Invested
$9.13
Value
$13.31
PnL
-$0.76
Record
50%
390-393 (783)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.