Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $325 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$324.71
-$3.07
99.3¢ → 98.4¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $144.12 | $142.61 | -$1.51 | 8% 27-323 (350) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $69.23 | $68.83 | -$0.4 | 50% 4534-4452 (8986) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $65.02 | $64.1 | -$0.92 | 44% 1079-1378 (2457) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $49.41 | $49.18 | -$0.23 | 28% 838-2134 (2972) |
Invested
$144.12
Value
$142.61
PnL
-$1.51
Record
8%
27-323 (350)
balthazar<$100Invested
$69.23
Value
$68.83
PnL
-$0.4
Record
50%
4534-4452 (8986)
Invested
$65.02
Value
$64.1
PnL
-$0.92
Record
44%
1079-1378 (2457)
Invested
$49.41
Value
$49.18
PnL
-$0.23
Record
28%
838-2134 (2972)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.