Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Meta be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $93 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$93.1

Combined PnL

-$7.88

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$92.8

Total Shares93

Combined PnL-$1.47

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.3

Total Shares202

Combined PnL-$6.41

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$40.8	$39.31	-$1.49	63% 451-268 (719)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.96	-$0.01	18% 80-367 (447)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$18.36	$18.39	+$0.03	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.14	$5.14	+$0	49% 471-500 (971)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$3.1	$0.14	-$2.97	47% 4803-5424 (10227)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$1.72	$0.08	-$1.65	33% 73-145 (218)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$1.03	$0.05	-$0.99	27% 947-2550 (3497)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$0.83	$0.04	-$0.8	11% 6-47 (53)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$0.01	-$0	47% 117-130 (247)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$40.8

Value

$39.31

PnL

-$1.49

Record

63%

451-268 (719)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.96

PnL

-$0.01

Record

18%

80-367 (447)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.36

Value

$18.39

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.14

Value

$5.14

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

471-500 (971)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.1

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$2.97

Record

47%

4803-5424 (10227)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.72

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$1.65

Record

33%

73-145 (218)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.99

Record

27%

947-2550 (3497)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.83

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.8

Record

11%

6-47 (53)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

117-130 (247)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.