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4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$7.2K
$-2.2K
99.8¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 noreasapa | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.9K | $5.9K | -$2.95 | 91% 3581-335 (3916) |
 CoinTrick | Noavg 99.7¢ | $2.3K | $632.8 | $-1.7K | 97% 3262-86 (3348) |
 KimchiCapitalCTR | Yesavg 69.5¢ | $278.08 | $292.88 | -$269.87 | 76% 528-164 (692) |
ZX zxc368 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $199.8 | $199.8 | +$0 | 98% 13071-207 (13278) |
 Hannah-MontanaCTR | Yesavg 70.1¢ | $154.25 | $160.86 | -$152.27 | 68% 205-97 (302) |
ME merod | Noavg 98.3¢ | $138.67 | $37.86 | -$100.81 | 52% 2463-2294 (4757) |
noreasapaInvested
$5,889.64
Value
$5.9K
PnL
-$2.95
Record
91%
3581-335 (3916)
CoinTrickInvested
$2,349.97
Value
$632.8
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
97%
3262-86 (3348)
KimchiCapitalCTRInvested
$278.08
Value
$292.88
PnL
-$269.87
Record
76%
528-164 (692)
Invested
$199.8
Value
$199.8
PnL
+$0
Record
98%
13071-207 (13278)
Hannah-MontanaCTRInvested
$154.25
Value
$160.86
PnL
-$152.27
Record
68%
205-97 (302)
Invested
$138.67
Value
$37.86
PnL
-$100.81
Record
52%
2463-2294 (4757)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.