Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 85¢ · $668 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$668.06
$371.08
45.2¢ → 85¢
+88% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yesavg 44.6¢ | $184.54 | $430.63 | +$246.08 | 50% 393-397 (790) |
DE dedidanc | Yesavg 43.8¢ | $92.65 | $215.06 | +$122.4 | 56% 94-73 (167) |
KI KiruaTrading<$100 | Yesavg 78¢ | $13.72 | $15.71 | +$1.99 | 56% 258-201 (459) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 22.7¢ | $6.07 | $6.67 | +$0.6 | 42% 5214-7149 (12363) |
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$184.54
Value
$430.63
PnL
+$246.08
Record
50%
393-397 (790)
Invested
$92.65
Value
$215.06
PnL
+$122.4
Record
56%
94-73 (167)
Invested
$13.72
Value
$15.71
PnL
+$1.99
Record
56%
258-201 (459)
Invested
$6.07
Value
$6.67
PnL
+$0.6
Record
42%
5214-7149 (12363)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.