Will Merav Ben Ari be the next Speaker of the Knesset?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $160 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$159.77
$0.28
99.8¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Late
107h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $97.65 | $97.8 | +$0.15 | 23% 84-282 (366) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.99 | +$0.05 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.99 | +$0.05 | 51% 4609-4510 (9119) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $13.97 | $13.99 | +$0.02 | 78% 326-91 (417) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $7.98 | $8 | +$0.01 | 37% 3161-5372 (8533) |
Invested
$97.65
Value
$97.8
PnL
+$0.15
Record
23%
84-282 (366)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.05
Record
51%
4609-4510 (9119)
Invested
$13.97
Value
$13.99
PnL
+$0.02
Record
78%
326-91 (417)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.98
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.01
Record
37%
3161-5372 (8533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.