Will Meituan have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $296 held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$296.25
$0.3
99.7¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $124.63 | $124.75 | +$0.13 | 28% 108-284 (392) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $70.72 | $70.86 | +$0.14 | 28% 530-1372 (1902) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $69.72 | $69.84 | +$0.12 | 51% 4732-4556 (9288) |
LI Likaseent<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $22.64 | $22.58 | -$0.07 | 26% 361-1008 (1369) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $8.06 | $8.04 | -$0.02 | 30% 513-1183 (1696) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.18 | $0.18 | +$0 | 12% 25-176 (201) |
Invested
$124.63
Value
$124.75
PnL
+$0.13
Record
28%
108-284 (392)
Invested
$70.72
Value
$70.86
PnL
+$0.14
Record
28%
530-1372 (1902)
balthazar<$100Invested
$69.72
Value
$69.84
PnL
+$0.12
Record
51%
4732-4556 (9288)
Invested
$22.64
Value
$22.58
PnL
-$0.07
Record
26%
361-1008 (1369)
Invested
$8.06
Value
$8.04
PnL
-$0.02
Record
30%
513-1183 (1696)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.18
Value
$0.18
PnL
+$0
Record
12%
25-176 (201)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.