Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 Action of the Year?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 32¢ · $351 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$351.22
$1.97
50.2¢ → 31.9¢
-37% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+15 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
654h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 macrosteaksCTR | Noavg 52¢ | $67.74 | $173.09 | -$15.02 | 54% 3270-2740 (6010) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 61.6¢ | $139.45 | $119.5 | -$7.16 | 17% 399-1952 (2351) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 61.6¢ | $74.18 | $70.23 | -$4.05 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 42.8¢ | $51.6 | $49.26 | -$3.12 | |
ME melganis<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $6.5 | $29.15 | +$21.98 | 75% 1599-543 (2142) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 40.9¢ | $60 | $21.06 | -$3.48 | 31% 1406-3191 (4597) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.4¢ | $24 | $8.42 | -$1.51 | 23% 176-599 (775) |
macrosteaksCTRInvested
$67.74
Value
$173.09
PnL
-$15.02
Record
54%
3270-2740 (6010)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$139.45
Value
$119.5
PnL
-$7.16
Record
17%
399-1952 (2351)
Both legs:
Invested
$6.5
Value
$29.15
PnL
+$21.98
Record
75%
1599-543 (2142)
Invested
$60
Value
$21.06
PnL
-$3.48
Record
31%
1406-3191 (4597)
Invested
$24
Value
$8.42
PnL
-$1.51
Record
23%
176-599 (775)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.