Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Max Holloway be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.03

Combined PnL

-$63.55

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.03

Total Shares2,061

Combined PnL-$63.55

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$5.65	$0.52	-$5.13	41% 1295-1880 (3175)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$26.21	$0.25	-$25.96	36% 635-1124 (1759)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$21.55	$0.21	-$21.35	42% 5986-8161 (14147)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR	Yesavg 5.3¢	$130.16	$0.03	-$9.5	55% 5874-4767 (10641)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.25	$0.01	-$0.24	73% 2835-1044 (3879)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$0.86	$0.01	-$0.86	35% 104-196 (300)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$0.53	$0.01	-$0.52	55% 6024-5008 (11032)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.65

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$5.13

Record

41%

1295-1880 (3175)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.21

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$25.96

Record

36%

635-1124 (1759)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.55

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$21.35

Record

42%

5986-8161 (14147)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR

Yes

Invested

$130.16

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$9.5

Record

55%

5874-4767 (10641)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.24

Record

73%

2835-1044 (3879)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.86

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.86

Record

35%

104-196 (300)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.52

Record

55%

6024-5008 (11032)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.