Will Matt Olson win the 2026 National League MVP Award?

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 100¢ · $127 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 17%

Total Value

$127.07

Combined PnL

-$24.63

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$125.48

Total Shares125

Combined PnL+$0.06

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.59

Total Shares3,170

Combined PnL-$24.69

No — 17%Yes — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894	Noavg 99.9¢	$124.88	$125.48	+$0.06	43% 10590-14068 (24658)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.69	$0.56	-$1.14	31% 738-1610 (2348)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.47	-$17.69	34% 3305-6334 (9639)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.36	+$0	38% 7139-11757 (18896)
NO northstockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$5.78	$0.2	-$5.76	40% 256-391 (647)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yes	$0	$0	-$0.11	28% 2733-7094 (9827)

god83743894

Invested

$124.88

Value

$125.48

PnL

+$0.06

Record

43%

10590-14068 (24658)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.69

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$1.14

Record

31%

738-1610 (2348)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$17.69

Record

34%

3305-6334 (9639)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.36

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

7139-11757 (18896)

northstockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.78

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$5.76

Record

40%

256-391 (647)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0.11

Record

28%

2733-7094 (9827)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.